AA 1944 · TPA → DCA

departs 6:56 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.33 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1944 · TPA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?