AA 1945 · DFW → PHL

departs 4:18 PM CT · arrives 8:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±5 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
22%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip2.26 in

PHL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1945 · DFW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?