Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1991 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 1991 · JAX → CLT

departs 8:17 PM ET · arrives 9:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1991 · JAX → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?