AA 2104 · MIA → BWI

departs 3:50 PM ET · arrives 6:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.29 in

BWI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2104 · MIA → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?