AA 2144 · IAH → MIA

departs 5:25 AM CT · arrives 9:06 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from IAH are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

MIA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2144 · IAH → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?