AA 2191 · MIA → PHL

departs 1:54 PM ET · arrives 4:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.29 in

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2191 · MIA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?