AA 2262 · MIA → LGA

departs 7:54 PM ET · arrives 11:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.26 in

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2262 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?