AA 2271 · MIA → LGA

departs 6:13 PM ET · arrives 9:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.30 in

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2271 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?