AA 2323 · ORD → MIA

departs 4:44 PM CT · arrives 9:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

79% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

MIA (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.71 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2323 · ORD → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?