AA 2413 · ILM → CLT

departs 3:23 PM ET · arrives 4:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from ILM are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.01 in

CLT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2413 · ILM → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?