Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2426 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AA 2426 · MIA → SFO

departs 8:35 PM ET · arrives 11:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±5 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2426 · MIA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?