Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2461SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
AA 2461 · SAN → PHX
departs 9:41 AM PT · arrives 11:09 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
30%chance · ±2 pts+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.