Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2461SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 2461 · SAN → PHX
departs 9:41 AM PT · arrives 11:09 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
14%chance · ±0 pts−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.