Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2490 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 2490 · LGA → FLL

departs 7:57 AM ET · arrives 11:08 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.84 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2490 · LGA → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?