Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2490 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2490 · LGA → FLL

departs 7:57 AM ET · arrives 11:08 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2490 · LGA → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?