AA 2495 · MIA → MCO

departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 7:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±2 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2495 · MIA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?