AA 2525 · LGA → MIA

departs 3:43 PM ET · arrives 6:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2525 · LGA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?