AA 2537 · ORD → TUS

departs 9:53 AM CT · arrives 11:58 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −38 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

TUS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2537 · ORD → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?