Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2564 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AA 2564 · DFW → ABQ

departs 10:56 PM CT · arrives 11:49 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±11 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ABQ?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.90 in

ABQ (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2564 · DFW → ABQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABQ?