Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2564 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2564 · DFW → ABQ

departs 10:56 PM CT · arrives 11:49 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±9 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ABQ?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.83 in

ABQ (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2564 · DFW → ABQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABQ?