Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2564 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2564 · DFW → ABQ

departs 10:56 PM CT · arrives 11:49 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ABQ?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.44 in

ABQ (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2564 · DFW → ABQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABQ?