AA 2600 · MIA → JFK

departs 6:37 PM ET · arrives 9:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.28 in

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2600 · MIA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?