AA 2604 · CLT → SRQ

departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 9:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SRQ?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SRQ (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2604 · CLT → SRQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to SRQ?