AA 2609 · SAT → DFW

departs 2:48 PM CT · arrives 4:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

80% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
15%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
30%
Cancelled
23%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precip1.92 in

DFW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip2.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2609 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?