Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2609 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2609 · SAT → DFW

departs 2:48 PM CT · arrives 4:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.38 in

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2609 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?