AA 2616 · SAT → DFW

departs 5:01 AM CT · arrives 6:25 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
28%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling540 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip3.40 in

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2616 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?