AA 2651 · ORF → CLT

departs 5:18 PM ET · arrives 6:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2651 · ORF → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?