Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2663 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AA 2663 · PHL → SFO

departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 8:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±4 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2663 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?