AA 2761 · DFW → STL

departs 6:02 PM CT · arrives 7:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

80% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
28%
Over 2 hours late
19%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.74 in

STL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,433 ft Visibility5.66667 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2761 · DFW → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?