AA 2795 · MIA → PHL

departs 5:02 PM ET · arrives 8:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2795 · MIA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?