Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2826 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 2826 · CLT → ILM

departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 9:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2826 · CLT → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?