AA 2828 · MIA → DFW

departs 5:37 PM ET · arrives 7:47 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

81% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
14%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
19%
Cancelled
24%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 2.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.82 in

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip2.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2828 · MIA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?