AA 2855 · CLT → BWI

departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 7:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2855 · CLT → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?