Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2876 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 2876 · DFW → TYS

departs 1:32 PM CT · arrives 4:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

76% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 6.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

TYS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2876 · DFW → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?