AA 2916 · DCA → RSW

departs 8:19 AM ET · arrives 11:08 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2916 · DCA → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?