AA 2933 · MIA → EWR

departs 2:26 PM ET · arrives 5:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2933 · MIA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?