Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2958 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AA 2958 · DFW → FAT

departs 8:24 PM CT · arrives 9:43 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

FAT (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2958 · DFW → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?