Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2958 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2958 · DFW → FAT

departs 8:24 PM CT · arrives 9:43 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±8 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 2.1 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.83 in

FAT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2958 · DFW → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?