AA 3010 · MIA → SAN

departs 8:13 PM ET · arrives 10:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3010 · MIA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?