Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3079 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 3079 · ORD → PHX

departs 10:16 AM CT · arrives 11:58 AM MT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3079 · ORD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?