Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3079 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3079 · ORD → PHX

departs 10:18 AM CT · arrives 12:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3079 · ORD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?