AA 3148 · DCA → ORD

departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 7:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

75% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.92 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3148 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?