Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3149 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 3149 · DFW → MSP

departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 11:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.37 in

MSP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3149 · DFW → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?