AA 3169 · MIA → PHL

departs 5:54 PM ET · arrives 9:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.63 in

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3169 · MIA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?