Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3172 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 3172 · MIA → PHX

departs 11:20 AM ET · arrives 1:08 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.50 in

PHX (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3172 · MIA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?