Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3195 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AA 3195 · DFW → SAN

departs 6:15 PM CT · arrives 7:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3195 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?