Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3236 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 3236 · MIA → LAS

departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 7:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±7 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.75 in

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3236 · MIA → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?