Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3243 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 3243 · ORD → MDT

departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDT?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDT

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.23 in

MDT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3243 · ORD → MDT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDT?