Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3243 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 3243 · ORD → MDT

departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.14 in

MDT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3243 · ORD → MDT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDT?