AA 3253 · ORD → EWR

departs 5:36 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3253 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?